PE复苏是否走得太远、太快？
2020年5月20日
作者Philip Lawlor，常务董事，全球市场研究主管
远期市盈率已从3月份的低点全面回升，目前多数市盈率已达到或接近过去5年的最高水平。美国大盘股罗素1000指数（Russell 1000）的反弹尤为引人注目，该指数已攀升逾600个基点，至20×（15年高点）左右；富时欧洲指数（FTSE Europe）则上涨逾500个基点。罗素1000指数（russell1000）与发达国家的同类指数相比，仍保持着相当高的溢价，后者的估值已在14-15%左右趋同×.
地区12个月远期市盈率（×）
资料来源：富时罗威廉希尔体育素/Refinitiv。截至2020年5月15日的数据。过去的表现不能保证将来的结果。重要信息请参见结尾。
But, as the chart below illustrates, the global re-rating since the March nadir reflects the perverse combination of rising “Ps” and sharply falling forecasts for “E”.
价格/收益分解
资料来源：富时罗威廉希尔体育素/Refinitiv。2020年5月15日。过去的表现不能保证将来的结果。重要的法律披露请参见结尾。
This tells us that markets are looking beyond today's bleak pandemic-shattered economic landscape to the far brighter prospects on the post-lockdown horizon, reinforced by unprecedented central-bank and fiscal support. But have they gotten ahead of themselves?
如下所示，富时环球（FTSE）对2020年每股收益（EPS）的普遍预测已下调至2017年的19美元左右，抹去了自那以来美国减税推动的所有收益，与三个月前多数市场预计的强劲增长相比，出现了惊人的逆转。然而，与此同时，分析师们提高了对2021年的预期，他们现在预计全球市场的复苏将比先前预期的更加强劲。
富时环球指数一致每股收益估计值（美元）
资料来源：富时罗威廉希尔体育素/Refinitiv。2020年5月15日。过去的表现不能保证将来的结果。重要的法律披露请参见结尾。
But there are reasons for caution. Forecasts for 2021 largely reflect base effects, as well as the tendency of analyst forecasts to initially overshoot, as the pattern of EPS trails in most years attests. And, with a record number of firms suspending guidance and hard data still scarce, earnings visibility remains unprecedently low.
负经营杠杆风险t型
As the chart below shows, there is the tight historical relationship between shifts in revenues and margins (operating leverage) and EPS growth prospects. With the economic ravages of the Great Lockdown already rivaling the worst experienced since the 1930s and the timing and pace of recovery still highly uncertain, negative operating-leverage risks remain elevated.
罗素1000 revenue growth, net margins and 12-month forward EPS growth
资料来源：富时罗威廉希尔体育素/Refinitiv。2020年5月15日。过去的表现不能保证将来的结果。重要的法律披露请参见结尾。
As this implies, though the worst may be behind us, it’s still too early to sound the “all clear” on the negative earnings cycle.
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过去的表现不能保证将来的结果。提供的图表仅供说明之用。显示的指数回报可能并不代表可投资资产的实际交易结果。所示的某些回报可能反映了经过回溯测试的业绩。在指数开始日期之前呈现的所有表现都是经过回溯测试的表现。回测性能不是实际性能，而是假设性能。后验计算方法与该指数正式推出时采用的方法相同。然而，后验数据可能反映了指数法的应用，这有助于事后分析，并且指数的历史计算可能会根据指数计算中使用的基础经济数据的修正而每月发生变化。
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